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 The new housing study of Ortonville is statistically inaccurate and as a result unreliable.

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PostSubject: The new housing study of Ortonville is statistically inaccurate and as a result unreliable.   Sun Nov 23, 2008 9:52 pm

The new housing study of Ortonville is statistically inaccurate and as a result unreliable.

The study begins by saying,

"It should be noted that the smaller cities will often show significant percentage changes in certain data presented in this study. Small numerical changes within small communities can cause large percentage variations. These small numerical changes, however, can have sizable implications for the economic and social lives of those communities. The study itself is too small to rely on. This admissions is made when the makers of the study said,

The findings contained herein do not constitute a feasibility study and are not intended to serve as an investment tool for those who are interested in development within the study area. Investors and developers should conduct additional research into their particular market area prior to investment."

The study then makes the following statement,

"The existing Big Stone Power Plant currently employs 75 people – 9 of whom (12%) live in
Minnesota. • Based on this current 12% residency rate – 5.4 of the 45 new employees can be expected to live in Minnesota."

How in the world did the makers of this study insert 5.4%? This was at best a shot in the dark!SmileyCentral.com

Aaron Levenstein said about statistics, “Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal are vital.”

Growth as a result to the Power Plant is really a statistical myth. Ortonville’s housing will not be affected by the power plant.

The study then went into elderly housing and concluded,

It can be assumed that Ortonville can reasonably capture 35% of the demand for new independent living units. This means that 7 units for which there is immediate demand can be met by Ortonville, and a total of 16 units by 2013. By the way, these actual numbers are awfully small and statistically skewed if one or two elderly decide not to stay in Ortonville.

The study goes into the area of elderly housing needs but the study fails to consider mortality tables and the desire of the elderly to be near their families. In fact, the study suggests that being near the community is more important to the elderly than being close to family who have left Ortonville. Does the city council really want to spend 2 million dollars on a project with this type of reasoning?

If Ortonville elects to develop new assisted living, consideration could be given to converting a portion of the Fairway View independent living to assisted living coupled with adding another independent living structure or adding 6 to 8 more units onto the assisted living wing at Fairway View. Was this whole study conducted to reach this half-hearted conclusion?SmileyCentral.com

It is time for Ortonville to cooperate and look in a new direction for real economic development but it calls for a real change in attitude.

First, what about specialized elderly care for late term dementia? I will leave this with just an option. The Ross’s are great people who have created significant growth in Ortonville and the community needs to listen to the medical leadership that has been provided to date. This is just a thought.

Now the real change is developing a partnership with Big Stone City. Big Stone City will experience significant housing demands but Big Stone City does not have a booming business community. Ortonville has no tax on food and clothing and Ortonville should seek growth and exploit this loophole in the South Dakota tax structure. Ortonville needs to promote expanded growth in the grocery area.

The combinations of these two things do bring jobs, long term and stable jobs.

To Loves2travel: Isn’t this a real economic development plan? Notice how the beginnings of the plan use the advantages the community has and then creates jobs. Economic Development creates jobs first and then worries about housing. This council approach is _ backwards.
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