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 Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis

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PostSubject: Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:13 pm

In recent posts on this site there was exposed a major flaw in the Oakes analysis to eliminate the police department.

Professionals who conduct studies to determine whether or not a department should be eliminated look to important factors of the community (in this case Ortonville) and then draw comparisons to other cities.

It appears that the flawed Oakes reasoning draws a city and then tries to compare to Ortonville.

The result is that the comparisons used by Oakes are easily refuted. For instance it was asked what city did Oakes use to draw the conclusion that eliminating the police department worked? There was no response.

Here are the factors at least some of which should have been included in the Oakes approach.

Here are some factors that I think are important! What is this population of a radius of 15 miles from Ortonville? What communities have this comparable in Minnesota? What community in the state has three major highways passing through the community? What communities that have police protection other than the county within a 20 mile radius of Ortonville? What is the population of Ortonville and the surrounding communities during peak tourism? What community controls the flooding to most of the state, increasing the likelihood of terrorism? What community you are using has another state boundary as an issue? What impact does a major target of terrorism, such as a power plant have in determining the need for police protection?

Mr. Arndt finally changed his tune to these may not be facts but it is information.

The following posts are excerpted to make the actual debate read faster.

For the entire discussion see: Highlights of the Ortonville City Council Meeting - Golf Ran
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PostSubject: The Factors   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:22 pm

Dear Mr. Arndt:

You have committed fraud to attempt to have input on this site. Despite the fact that you continue to abuse members on the site, just as you did when you were on city council, our committee has made an attempt to carefully consider our next step with you.

Any person that would violate the rules of this site has a lack of boundaries in their use of persuasion.

For instance, numerous times who have admitted to the use of selective information in persuading the public to your position? In Case you have not read my other posts, selective information is telling someone or the public just part of the facts or truth because all of the facts do not support your position.

understood wrote:
“That is what you here from a 2 year old. An adult could have a more professional approach. It would be nice if I could here debates about the facts of law enforcement, instead of I want it, I want it, I want it. Until I hear some real good facts that go against what a majority of the council may want, your 2 year old approach won't change my mind.”

“The current council is only percieved as bullys by people like you that they don't listen to. They have done the research for their decisions and are not likely to take uninformed advise from SD residents to make their final decision.”

Just as Mr. Oakes did a few years ago and now you here you use a shotgun approach and want fast responses to massive data. Shotguns approaches are also often times used so that the author appears to usually delights in the fact that he is winning the argument.

The general perception of the public and those who debate frequently is that it is generally a weak method of persuasion.

The third problem with your approach is that of the moving target. An example of that approach was yesterday when I refuted your comparison to Redfield. You then moved the target to Minneota, Pipestone and Waconia and other communities and misread the real statistics.

Are you really ready for the real debate? Then let’s get the playing field evened. What factors are important in analyzing police protection?
Here are some factors that I think are important! What is this population of a radius of 15 miles from Ortonville? What communities have this comparable in Minnesota? What community in the state has three major highways passing through the community? What communities that have police protection other than the county within a 20 mile radius of Ortonville? What is the population of Ortonville and the surrounding communities during peak tourism? What community controls the flooding to most of the state, increasing the likelihood of terrorism? What community you are using has another state boundary as an issue? What impact does a major target of terrorism, such as a power plant have in determining the need for police protection?

By the way the state auditor did not have a report. She compiled data of the individual communities. You and Mr. Oakes took this data and reached the conclusion from your interpretation of the data.

In the definition section of the data, the State Auditor said the following:

“Public Safety. These budgeted expenditures reflect the costs related to the protection of persons and property. This category combines several distinct city departments, including police, fire, ambulance services, and other protection. Other protection includes building inspections, animal control, and flood control.”

That is why in my factors above I named that as an important factor.

My education and the use of statistics say that you look at comparable factors first and then draw a comparison to like communities.

What factors did Mr. Oakes use in drawing his comparisons? This is where we begin and not end.

Let’s first reach an agreement on the factors and then debate. Let’s not put the cart before the horse.

When I listened to Mr. Oakes he did just as you did here and as a result was unable to persuade a majority of the public. Most people will agree with Topgun. We are uninterested in time spent abusing statistics.

Are you ready? Comparisons are tough because each community is unique and Mr. Oakes inability to understand this will be the reason he is unsuccessful in meaningful debate.
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PostSubject: Let's just take random cities to prove the Oakes point   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:23 pm

THIS WAS ORIGINALLY WRITTEN BY ARTIE ARNDT

WOW, I post facts and articles and all you can come up with is calling it fraud! That is really funny. If defending my research is abusing people then I guess i will go to jail. I have simply posted some facts and information about police and budgets. I have asked you to post yours and I see nothing. Big words continue to get thrown around like fraud.? I have asked dozens of times to discuss facts. Please post yours. Looking for another town with 3 major highways, a lake and a state border and a Dairy Queen is not a proper way of doing the research. I feel it is a poor attempt to discredit the research that is done. The figures that are posted on the league and State auditors website are what they feel are worthy of comparison. You did not like my Redfield example so I found you more. Its not hard. A simple yahoo search will get you most of the info. If you could post all the info you have that is "the rest of the story" I would like to read it. As far as Oakes, he is not on this site and I don't think he ever intends to be. Lets just keep him out of it unless you want to answere my question of his threatening you. It is not fair to attack someone who is not here to defend himself. Could we just please talk about the facts I posted or the facts you have. The moderators of this site have also asked you to do this. I have begged for your facts. We still see nothing. I expect this thread is close to the dead end because you have no facts to post and you do not agree with the state auditors facts. At least you and I got to the bottom of the box together. I hope most of your questions were answered. None of mine were.
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PostSubject: Hitting the moving target   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:25 pm

Mr. Arndt:

There can be no debate because of the inappropriate extrapolations of the data. Is that hard to understand?

In the courses that I have had in statistics you first must acknowledge what factors are important.

Answer the question, or are we to presume that you cannot answer the questions because you do not have facts! You have presented and interpretation of data and reached conclusions.

Come on Mr. Arndt. Answer the question.

This site has given you every opportunity to play by the rules and the failure to answer the question is because you do not understand simple concepts of statistical analysis.

Let me deal a little with the moving target. First, does Redfield have a terrorism target within 5 miles of the city. Ortonville has 2.

Second, Pipestone has had numerous corruption issues within government and banking. Are you aware of this? What are the populations of Pipestone in a 15 mile radius? They are not located immediately on a border. What tourism does Pipestone have? Did the auditor include any of this information or was this conclusion derived from Mr. Oakes.

Minneota has how many major highways going through it? A power plant? A dam that controls flooding for the entire southern part of the state? Tourism? Motel? Population within 15 miles. A county seat where criminals make first appearances?

Waconia is where? This is the opposite problem. How many miles from a major metropolitan area. How many miles from the headquarters if the Minnesota crime bureau? Does it have as tourism both fall and summer tourism? Is a power plant nearby or a dam that controls major flooding.

What community next?

For those reading, do you see how those who defend the elimination run from the real debate? I already know that the Artie Arndt's of this world and the Oake's of this world will not be persuaded by the real debate.

This debate is meant for the public and Artie Arndt has claimed to be the spokesmen for this group and the analysis is flawed because you must compare apples to apples and not compare constantly running targets.
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PostSubject: The Arndt Concession and Attempt to Patronize   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:26 pm

Originally Written by Artie Arndt

I am satisfied that you will not be pursueded. Its OK. I am more concerned of the opinions of those who live in Ortonville and pay taxes into the city tax base and vote. We don't have to agree. In debate it is OK to agree to disagree. I don't like your process and you don't like mine. That is OK. At least the forum allows both of us to post our findings so the rest of the citizens can read the information. It is OK for anyone to read all fo the information I found and the information you found and make their own opinion.

My personal opinion: I am very excited to see in all the research I found that county policing is working well for several communinities. I am very excited to see the opportunity to save so much money and deliver great public safety. I am very excited that this is an option for Ortonville. I am very excited that I was unable to find hardly any negatives in my research and yours. I am very optimistic that with the great council we have, they will balance our budget and get Ortonville financially on stable ground.
The information I have found will be forwarded to the council for their review. There are several on the council that have not seen the facts and stories. Remember, I did not write them, I just found them. Its kinda like the newspaper, they don't make the news they just report it. Feel free to drop your box of information off at the city office as well. Again, thank you to the Lady Hawk and Computer whiz for the opportunity to post the facts and eliminate some of the missed inforamtion that was out there to distract the citizens from the truth about county policing. If anyone else is interested in talking about the facts or pros and cons of this topic, let me know. As far as mouthpiece, we will agree to disagree.
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PostSubject: Admission that the Statistics are not Facts but Information   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeWed May 27, 2009 6:32 pm

It is funny the facts have now been reduced to information. This is a polite way of saying I do not have facts, just information.

Mr. Arndt then says in a self serving way that county policing is working for all of the information he has.

Again consider the source. Who is he talking to? Mr. Arndt misrepresented his identity to the site and then wanted this site to condemn others for personal attacks.

It is very clear he has no facts. Just extrapolations of statistics. It is very clear that he does not have a letter or report from the State Auditor saying that Ortonville spends to much on Police protection. He extrapolated this from the statistics.

He does not have a letter from the League saying that Ortonville overspends on police protection. He extrapolates this analysis from templates and general news letters from the League.
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PostSubject: Re: Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeThu May 28, 2009 7:43 am

Why dont all you quit complaining on a forum and go have a meeting together and maybe mr Ardnt could slap some sense into all of you.
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PostSubject: Re: Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeThu May 28, 2009 9:26 am

*Computerwhiz rolls her eyes at yet another griefer Rolling Eyes and pushes the big red button. "Banned!"* judge
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PostSubject: RK Provides the reasoning   Ortonville Police Department, A Flaw in the Oakes Analysis Icon_minitimeThu May 28, 2009 12:34 pm

RK Provides the reasoning for supporting law enforcement

Perhaps RK's analysis is that when parties disagree with each other the parties should get at each end of the street and have a gun fight.

Thank-God that our society has altered it's methods of resolving dieputes.
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